Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Israel v. Lebanon today

Indiscriminate bombing can create an international crisis. Good job, Israeli bomb-chuckers. You blow up aid shipments; you blow up white-flagged vehicles fleeing Hezbollah "strongholds"; you blow up Red Cross vehicles. Now, you're blowing up a clearly marked UN observation post with four unarmed peacekeepers inside, killing them.

Who was it that you were fighting again? Hezbollah... or Lebanon... or...?

Israel wants to occupy a strip of land in southern Lebanon "until an international force is ready." As noted yesterday, everyone wants the force, but no major country plans on actually being the force. So, what's the deal?

Condi's presence there seems to be all about appearances. She said the "right" things to the "right" people without being proactive in attempting to bring about a cease-fire. It seems as if, every day, we give the Israelis a little more leeway in terms of just how long the major bombing of Lebanon can continue - now approaching 2 further weeks of bomb-dropping.

This is bad policy, considering that other Arab countries do not plan on sitting idly by as Israel bombs Lebanon back to the stone age. Saudi Arabia has already said they would throw down if the indiscriminate aggression against Lebanon is not ended. The path we are on right now is clearly the path to a true World War. Do we want to be seen as instigators... or problem solvers?
The Lebanese government has adopted four planks of Hezbollah's demands for a cease-fire:
1. The return of Shabaa Farms, a piece of territory formerly belonging to Lebanon that is one of the main reasons why there is so much public support in the area for Hezbollah's militias. Even Lebanese officials say that they were allowed to keep their weapons because they were "resisting continued Israeli occupation."
2. The return of three Lebanese prisoners held by Israel. Hezbollah, and their "sponsor" countries, were shocked by Israel's over-the-top response to what was viewed by them as another operation in a theater of "limited engagement." Hasn't this always been going on over there? "You have some of our people, we have some of yours... let's trade." Is it right? No. But it is a function of open - though mostly muted - hostility that has simmered for years.
3. An end to Israeli flyovers of Lebanon. Remove the threat of continued bombing until a lasting settlement can be reached. Creating and propagating fear is not conducive to peace.
4. A map showing the location of Israeli landmines on Lebanese territory. That part sounds totally fair to me. If you want them to secure the border, let it be THEIR security. Undetected landmines are also not conducive to peace.

Israel, admittedly, has underestimated Hezbollah, with one reserve Israeli Army general-cum-intelligence official, General Yaakov Amidror, describing them as "more like an army than the Palestinian militias." They are better organized, much more entrenched, and have more powerful weapons than the Palestinians. He even argues that the protracted air war may be unnecessary: "Only the ground forces can deal with these guys in the villages." Hezbollah soldiers are organized in such a way as to blend in with the civilian population, making air strikes inefficient, likely to miss their intended target, and likely to cause excessive collateral damage. An Israeli government minister and former paratrooper, Eitan Cabel, says that it will not be possible to "completely eliminate Hezbollah as an armed force in Lebanon."

An unnamed Western ambassador has said that "Israel does not have the overwhelming superiority it thought it had... Essentially, you are asking [Syria] to connive in their own demise... Persuading Hezbollah to commit hara-kiri doesn't make sense from Syria's point of view."

Both sides must be brought to the table. You cannot broker peace when the brokers refuse to talk to one of the combatants. Yet, this is exactly the foreign policy course the Bush cabal prefers.

War, war, war... I hate this broken record. Let's work towards throwing it away, instead of forcing it to keep skipping.

-R.

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